Morning Technical Notes – Tuesday 4 June

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 has a key support test underway today near 4,850. Oversold RSI suggests it could bounce toward 4,940 or 5,000 but on a breakdown, it could complete a 50% retracement and test 4,770.

Japan 225 remains under heavy pressure. It dipped below 13,000 and bounced back in what may be a short term bear trap. It could rebound to test 13,120 then 38% retracement level with a prior high near 12,660 next Fibonacci support (50%) near 12,230 

Hong Kong 43 remains in a downtrend testing 22,275 with next support near 22,000 and resistance falling toward 22,635.

China A50 continues to bounce around between Fibonacci levels in the 8,110 to 8,320 zone.

India50 is breaking down today, taking out 5,950 with next support near 5,800 as RSI breaks under 50, confirming momentum is turning negative. 

Singapore 30 is breaking down, sliding below 3,330 with next support near 3,235 then 3,180.

US Indices

US30 bounced up off of 15,120 with more support in place near 15,000. Currently near 15,180, next resistance on a bounce appears near 15,400.

SPX500 hs been bouncing around between 1,620 and 1,640 today. On a rally, it could drive toward 1,655 or even 1,685 over time but if it fails, a 23% retracement and retest of $1,600 appear possible.

UK and European indices

UK 100 traded in a narrow range today, trying to build support near 6,540. RSI under 50 suggests correction momentum continues so as long as it remains below 6,600 a retest of 6,400 appears possible.

Germany30 dipped under 8,300 then bounced but continues to meet resistance at a lower high near 8,380 as upward momentum fades. N3ext support appears near 8,240 then the key 8,100 level where trend support converges.

France 40 held 3,900 support for now but remains in a downswing below 4,000 with next potential support on a breakdown near 3,800 then 3,600.

Italy 40 continues to roll over with RSI suggesting momentum turning downward. A break of 17,000 would confirm the start of a new downswing with next support near 16,860 then 16,650. Initial resistance is near 17,260.

Spain 35 successfully tested channel support near 8,200. Initial resistance on a rebound appears near 8,400 but if the current downswing continues, 8,000 or 7,730 could be probed.

Commodities

Gold is breaking out over $1,400 again today confirming increased support and accumulation. Next resistance on trend appears near $1.420 then $1,445 and $1,460. Support rises to the breakout point.  

Silver is holding above $22.00 and RSI has broken out of a downtrend, both encouraging signs  but the price needs to take out a downtrend resistance line near $23.00 to confirm a turnaround with next resistance near $23.30 then $24.80.

Platinum is breaking out of a three-month downtrend today driving through $1,480. A move above $1,500 confirms a new uptrend with next resistance near $1,515 then $1,555. 

Copper is climbing today toward the high end of a symmetrical triangle base forming between $3.22 and $3.36 with next upside resistance on a breakout near $3.40.

US crude has bounced up from $92.00 toward $93.25 but it remains in a downtrend unless it can get back above $93.75. Downside support appears near $91.30.

UK crude is having a nice bounce up off of $100.80 support today on improved sentiment toward Europe, rallying to test $102.00. On a break through there, $104.00 could be tested.

Gasoline is sitting on $2.80 trying to decide if it wants to drive on toward $2.96 or slump back toward $2.70.

Natural Gas is breaking down again today, taking out both $4.00 and trend support, while RSI moving under 50 suggests momentum turning bearish. Next key support appears near $3.85 then $3.60.

Corn continues to form a bullish ascending triangle base below $6.85 although it fell back today with support near $6.50 then $6.35. A breakout from the triangle would confirm the start of a new uptrend with next resistance near $7.00 then a measured $7.40.

Soybeans are breaking out of a symmetrical consolidation triangle through $15.40 today, signalling the start of a new upswing. The channel high near $15.85 emerges as the next key channel test followed by a measured $16.40.

Wheat has climbed back above $7.00 into the upper half of a $6.70 to $7.35 trading channel. Rising RSI suggests upward momentum building.

FX

NZDUSD is staging a big rebound today, reversing a brief cleanout dip under $0.8000. RSI has also turned up out of a positive divergence suggesting momentum turning positive. Initial resistance appears near $0.8160 then $0.8300. 

AUDUSD is staging a major breakout today. It has rallied from below $0.9600 to above $0.9700 while RSI breakout suggests momentum turning up. Next potential resistance tests appear near $0.9840 and $0.9930 as support rises toward $0.9710. 

USDJPY is staging a major breakdown today, falling below the key 100.00 barrier and breaking uptrend support. RSI breaking 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next support appears near 97.00. 

AUDJPY continues to trend lower, taking out 97.00 today with next support near 95.10.  

EURJPY is breaking down today, falling below 130.00 to complete a descending triangle. RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next key support appears near 127.30. 

USDSGD has turned sharply lower today taking out $1.2530 which may become resistance with next downside support near $1.2440 then $1.2310.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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3 Responses to Morning Technical Notes – Tuesday 4 June

  1. Michael says:

    Not a good result for the Japan 225 today. 😦

  2. Shadi Ibrahim says:

    Where are the Morning Technical Notes byColin Cieszynski

    > Morning Technical Notes – Tuesday 4 June Sent from my iPhone

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