Morning Technical Notes – Wednesday 29 May

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies

Asia Pacific indices

Australia 200 is trying to stabilize near 4,960 but needs to retake 5,000 to confirm the start of a new upswing. If successful, could take a run at 5,115 but if it fails, 4,930 or 4,850 could be retested. 

Japan 225 remains volatile bouncing up off or 14,000 toward 14,400 with next resistance near 14,770. RSI remains under 50 suggesting momentum turning negative. Next support on a breakdown appears near 13,675 then 13,525. 

ChinaA50 continues to advance in a step pattern up out of a saucer bottom indicating renewed accumulation confirmed by a rising RSI. Fibonacci resistance appears near 8,415 then 8,672 with support near 8,260 then 8,115.

Hong Kong 43 is trying to rebound with RSI moving back above 50 suggesting correction has run its course for now. Clearing 22,900, next resistance appears near 23,100 the low end of a gap then 23,280.

India50 remains in an upswing with RSI confirming momentum remains positive. Support moves up toward 6,100 from 5,960 with next resistance near 6,250 then 6,400.

Singapore30 has started to resume its uptrend but needs to clear 3,420 to call off a potential H&S top. Next resistance in the 3,465-3,475 area if successful with downside support near 3,350. 

US Indices

US30 took an early run at its all-time high early on but was unable to hold above 15,530. It has fallen back under 13,400 and with RSI still overbought, it may need to correct further. Next support appears near 13,340 then 13,150. 

SPX500 tried to turn up in early trading today but has slumped back in the afternoon, unable to hold 1,660, which suggests that it may continue to consolidate for some time . Next support appears near 1,635.

UK and European indices

UK 100 has a catch up rally but was unable to hold above 6,750. Initial support in a pullback appears near 6,700 then 6,660 and 6,540, with more resistance on a turnaround near 6,790.

Germany30 jumped back above 8,400 and could take another run at 8,550 but with RSI overbought, it may struggle to break out and could end up forming a double top. Support in a correction near 8,280 initially.

France 40 touched an intraday trend high but was unable to hold above 4,040. Next resistance if it is successful near 4,150 with support in a correction near 4,000 3,940 and 3,900.

Italy 40 soared up toward 17,440 today and appears to be trending toward a challenge of 17,500 or possibly even 17,650. RSI held 50 indicating that upward momentum remains intact.

Spain 35 rallied up from 8,300 back above 8,500 but has started to struggle with another lower high. A run at 8,700 remains possible but it could just as easily backslide again. 

Commodities

Gold is drifting lower after failing to clear $1,400. A drop through $1,380 would call off an ascending triangle base and signal a new downswing that could retest the $1,350-$1,360 area.

Silver has dropped back slightly but remains in base building mode above $22.00 with initial resistance near $23.20 then $24.00. Next support should that fail appears near $20.00.

Copper has peeked back above $3.30 with next resistance near $3.36 and $3.40 as support rises toward $3.28.

US crude has bounced up from $93.00 through $95.00 but still faces formidable downtrend resistance near $97.00.

UK crude is on the move upward again, driving through $104.00 with next resistance near $106.00 then $107.60.

Gasoline is back under accumulation, clearing $2.85 with next resistance near $2.92 then $2.96 and $3.10 on trend.

Natural Gas is rolling over again with the price falling back under $4.20 and RSI peaking at a lower level. Next support in a correction appears near $4.00 then $3.85.

FX

NZDUSD continues to build support above $0.8050, climbing back above $0.8100 with next resistance near $0.8160 and $0.8210. RSI suggests downward momentum easing.

AUDUSD is having a nice outside reversal bouncing up off of $0.9590. Oversold RSI suggests there’s still room to rebound. Initial resistance appears near $0.9720 where a breakout would confirm a double bottom with next resistance near $0.9860.

USDJPY successfully tested 100.60 support and has rebounded back above 102.00 with next key resistance near 103.40 then 105.80 as capital moves back out of defensive havens.

AUDJPY is bouncing a bit up off of 97.00 but needs to clear 100.00 to call off its current downtrend.

EURJPY has bounced up off of 130.00, while RSI has held above 50 keeping its broader uptrend intact. Next resistance appears near 132.75 then 133.80.

USDSGD is breaking out today, clearing $1.2660 and gaining on $1.2700 a key test with next resistance after that near $1.2740 then $1.2820.

 

 

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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