Morning Technical Notes – Thursday 23 May

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 continues to sell off. Its 5,150 breakdown point has been successfully tested as new resistance and RSI indicates momentum remains downward. Next key support test appears near 5,120 then 5,030. 

Japan 225 completed a bearish shooting star candle today, shooting up toward 16,000 before crashing back to earth and stabilizing near 15,625. Overbought RSI suggests it remains vulnerable with potential support near 15,500, 15,275 and 14,950. 

HongKong 43 tested the low end of a gap near 23,180 as new support. China flash PMI could indicate if its next move is toward a test of 23,500 or 23,000. 

India50 continues to test 6,100 as new support as it keeps rolling over with its next key test near 5,980 and upside resistance on a bounce near 6,150.  

US Indices 

US30 had a bearish key reversal today rallying to a new high then falling hard to finish down, suggesting exhaustion. Overbought RSI suggests its due for a correction. Initial support possible near 15,250 then 15,000. 

SPX500 had a bearish key reversal today, unable to hold its new high. RSI rolling under 70 from overbought territory also a bearish technical sign. Initial support possible near 1,646 then 1,622. 

UK and European indices 

UK 100 had a bearish key reversal today, driving up through 6,800 then falling to close lower. Overbought RSI suggests its overextended and may be due for a correction. Initial support possible near 6,750 then 6,660.  

Germany30 shot up to a new high then fell back under 8,500 in a bearish key reversal .Overbought RSI suggests a correction possible with initial support near 8,350 then 8,240.  

France 40 remains supported above 4,000 for now but has started to struggle with 4,060 resistance and could slide back toward 3,900 initially in a correction. 

Italy 40 continues to consolidate in the 17,350 to 17,650 range but could easily fall back to test 17,000 again in a correction situation. 

Spain 35 continues to retreat, falling into the lower half of a 8,300 to 8,700 trading channel. 

Commodities  

Gold is climbing up out of the right shoulder of a reverse H&S bottom, but needs to break through the $1,400 neckline to signal the start of a new recovery trend that could retest $1,445 or $1,485 initially.  

Silver continues to attract support above $22.00 as it continues to base build after a big bear trip key reversal on Monday. A positive RSI divergence suggests downward mo easing, and a downtrend breakout would signal upward momentum building.  

Copper is breaking out today, clearing $3.36 to signal the start of a new up leg while RSI suggests upward momentum accelerating. Next resistance appears near $3.40, then $3.45 and $3.55. 

US crude has been knocked back under $94.50 today, confirming a downtrend is underway. Next support appears near $93.40 with initial resistance near $95.50.  

UK crude remains below $104.00 following a breakdown, while falling RSI suggests downward momentum accelerating. Next support appears near $101.80 then $100.00. 

Gasoline has slumped back under $2.84 but remains in an uptrend and could be active later today off inventories. Next support near $2,78 and $2.70 with resistance in the $2.89 to $2.93 area. 

Natural Gas has had a nice run up from $3.85 toward $4.15 but it’s currently facing resistance near $4.20 followed by $4.40. Initial support near $4.00. 

Soybeans have cleared $15.00 and appear poised to break out of a six month base on a move through $15.20. Next upside resistance appears near $15.85 then a measured $16.80.  

FX  

NZDUSD was pounded back down to another retest of $0.8050 but did not break suggesting strong support at that level with more possible near $0.8000 or $0.7920. RSI near oversold suggest it could be getting due for a bounce. 

AUDUSD dipped below $0.9700 but has been trying to rebound while a small positive RSI divergence has emerged. This suggests the pair may be nearing capitulation. To call off the current downtrend, it would need to retake $0.9800. 

USDJPY broke through 103.00 to a new high today. Even though RSI near overbought, upward momentum remains intact for now with next Fibonacci resistance near 105.80. Initial support in a pullback near 101.80 then 100.00.  

AUDJPY has drifted under 100.00 and remains under distribution with next support near 99.20 then 97.05 with initial resistance on a rebound near 101.00 and 102.70. 

EURJPY shot up through 133.00 then slumped back toward 132.50. A bearish shooting star that coincides with a negative RSI divergence suggesting the current uptrend may be close to exhaustion. Key support remains near 131.00.

 

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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1 Response to Morning Technical Notes – Thursday 23 May

  1. Julius says:

    thank you

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