Morning Technical Notes – Wednesday 15 May

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 broke out of a bearish rising wedge causing it to fail for now. Next measured resistance appears near 5,280, with support moving up toward 5,200.  

Japan 225 has broken out over 15,000 which may become support and is gaining on parity with the US30. Its next key technical test appears near 15,700 but RSI is so overbought, it remains at high risk of a correction possible back toward 14,700.  

HongKong43 remains under pressure and under 23,000 suggesting a deeper correction may be taking hold. Currently near 22,950 next support appears near 22,900 and 22,700. 

India50 bounced off of 5,975 back up toward 6,000. It appears to be moving into a consolidation channel below 6,100, but a breakdown would confirm a double top and signal a new downtrend.    

US Indices 

US30 broke out to another all-time high today, clearing 15,200 and suggesting it could potentially drive toward a measured test of 15,400. RSI suggests upward mo accelerating again. Support moves up toward 15,060. 

SPX500 decisively broke out of a 1,620 to 1,640 consolidation range and drive toward 1,650 but now has a cluster of measured tests in the 1,655 to 1,660 area to contend with. 

UK and European indices 

UK 100 broke out to its highest level since 2007 today, taking a run at 6,700. RSI has gone overbought so it could struggle with 6,750 resistance for a short term followed by a measured 6,890 on a breakout. Support rises toward 6,600. 

Germany30 is consolidating its recent breakout in the 8,240 to 8,360 area pausing to work off an overbought RSI. Next measured resistance appears near 8,480 with more support near 8,160. 

France 40 remains well supported, pausing for a rest in the 3,900 to 3,980 area. 

Italy 40 is testing 17,360 channel resistance but may need to pause before advancing further with RSI getting overbought. Initial support appears near 17,000 with next prior resistance on a breakout near 17,550. 

Spain 35 broke down through 8,500 confirming the start of a new downswing within a wider 7,700 top 8,700 channel with initial support possible near 8,300 then 8,150. 

Commodities  

Gold remains in a downswing with $1,445 emerging as new resistance with support near $1,420 followed by $1,400 and $1,365. 

Silver is breaking down again. After failing to retake $24.00, it has dropped back toward $23.30 with next support after that near $22.60 then $22.00. 

Copper has falling back under $3.30. A break of the RSI under 50 and the price through $3.24 support remains needed though to call off the current upswing. 

US crude continues to slide, dropping through $95.00 and $94.50 while RSI rollover indicates momentum turning from positive to negative.  Trading near $94.20 next potential support appears near $93.00.  

UK crude keeps retreating, breaking a short term trend support line and sliding toward $102.25. Next key trend support appears near the big $100.00 level.   

Gasoline continues to hold above $2.80 as it tries to build a seasonal uptrend with next resistance near $2.88 then $2.95.  

Natural Gas has bounced toward the top of its $3.85 to $4.00 trading range. The direction it breaks from here will indicate if its seasonal correction is over or not. Next support appears near $3.65 with next resistance near $4.20. 

FX  

NZDUSD continues to fall but with RSI nearing oversold levels and the pair falling into a $0.8160 to $0.8200 potential support zone, it may be close to a washout. Initial resistance on a bounce appears near $0.8300. 

AUDUSD continues to get crushed today but appears to be finding support in the $0.9860 to $0.9880 area and with RSI now oversold, could be getting due for a technical bounce. Initial resistance looms near par. 

USDJPY has started to stall in the $102.30-102.40 area. An overbought RSI and a negative divergence suggest the current rally is nearing exhaustion as it approaches 103.00 measured resistance. On a pullback 100.00 could easily be retested. 

AUDJPY remains in an uptrend, clinging to 100.00 support. RSI suggests momentum has gone neutral with initial resistance near 102.40 then 105.20. 

EURJPY traded up to a new high near 132.80 before slipping back toward 132.40. Initial measured resistance remains near 134.70. A negative RSI divergence, however, suggests upward momentum slowing. 

USDSGD has quickly run up to test initial resistance near $1.2440 with its next test on trend near $1.2525 and initial support at its downtrend breakout point near $1.2375.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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