Morning Technical Notes – Friday 10 May

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 remains supported above 5,165, keeping its uptrend intact with next major support near 5,350. 

Japan 225 has rallied to its highest level in nearly five years. It has exceeded its 14,500 measured test and cleared 14,465 resistance. RSI suggests its overbought and more potential resistance looms near 14,650.

HongKong43 is struggling with 23,260 resistance again. Overbought RSI suggests its due for a correction with initial support near 23,060, the bottom of a breakaway gap. 

India 50 continues to struggle with 6,100. A failure would complete a double top with initial correction support near 5,975. Next measured resistance on a breakout appears near 6,400. 

US Indices 

US30 is levelling off near 15,100 for the moment with support in place near 15,000 and next measured resistance near 14,400 on trend. 

SPX500 has paused near 1,630 with RSI touching overbought territory. Initial support may appear near 1,625 then 1,600. A break of 1,635 would signal advances resuming with measured resistance still in place near 1,655.

UK and European indices 

UK 100 continues to attract support above 6,550, confirming its recent breakout and keeping its uptrend intact. Trading near 6,600, key resistance looms near 6,750 where it could retest the 2007 double top. 

Germany30 is still consolidating near 8,252 digesting its recent breakout through 8,170 to a new all-time high. Longer term, a measured move suggests 8,860 could potentially be tested. 

France 40 has slumped back to retest its 3,900 breakout point as new support keeping its uptrend intact with next key resistance near 4,040 then 4,150. 

Italy 40 slipped back a bit but held its 17,000 breakout point, keeping the current upleg intact with next resistance near 17,525 on trend. 

Spain 35 is holding steady in the 8,500 to 8,600 range consolidating recent gains with channel resistance in place near 8,720.  

Commodities  

Gold continues to bounce around in a channel between $1,445 and $1,485, consolidating recent gains and preparing for its next move. RSI needs to break 50 to confirm the start of an uptrend. 

Silver continues to form a bullish ascending triangle between $22.00 and $24.50 but it’s RSI stubbornly refuses to break out of a downtrend. 

Copper has slipped back a bit in normal trading but has been holding above $3.30 and the resistance line it broke, confirming that a new upswing is underway with resistance near $3.38 then $3.45. 

US crude remains choppy pulling back a bit after failing to break out of its $94.40 to $97.00 trading range.

 UK crude is bouncing around within 50 cents of its key $104.00 Fibonacci level. It remains in an uptrend above $102.75. 

Gasoline is consolidating above its $2.83 recent breakout point and below $2.87 with next major resistance on trend in the $2.95 to $3.00 area. 

Natural Gas is trading near $3.95 within a $3.85 to $4.00 channel with more support near $3.65 ahead of storage numbers. 

Coffee Arabica is breaking out today, blasting through $1.40 to complete a base and confirm the start of a new uptrend. A measured move from the recent channel suggests $1.50 could be tested followed by $1.54.  

Soybeans continue to advance toward the high end of their $13.50 to $15.00 trading channel having retested the extension of a broken resistance line. 

FX  

NZDUSD saw its rebound attempt fail to clear an old support line and the pair then drop under $0.8400 to test $0.8360. Key trend support test looms near $0.8300 followed by $0.8160. 

AUDUSD is breaking down hard today. An attempt to retake $1.0220 failed and was replaced by a plunge down toward $1.0050 bringing a retest of par within in sight. 

USDJPY has a major breakout underway today, driving through the big 100.00 barrier. RSI not overbought suggests there’s room to run with next measured resistance near 103.00.  

AUDJPY is holding steady in the 100.00 to 102.00 area as the street tries to decide whether the USD rebound is worse for defensive plays or cyclical plays. Next resistance near 105.20 with next major support near 97.00. 

EURJPY is breaking out today, clearing 131.00, while RSI suggests upward momentum accelerating with technical room to rally. Next measured resistance appears near 134.70.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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