Morning Technical Notes – Thursday 9 May

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 is breaking out today, clearing 5,200 and confirming the start of a new upleg. A measured move from the recent channel suggests 5,465 could be tested over time with initial resistance near 5,335. 

China A50 is breaking out today, blasting through 8,120 a key Fibonacci level that may become support and driving toward 8,200. RSI clearing 50 suggests upward momentum accelerating. Next key Fib resistance near 8,420. 

Japan 225 continues to climb, trading up toward 14,400 before backsliding a bit. Measured resistance remains in place near 14,500 with support moving up toward 14,200 

HongKong43 staged a breakaway gap and has moved into striking distance of its next key resistance level near 23,260 where it could struggle initially given overbought RSI. Support now appears at the gap low near 23,060. 

India 50 has a key resistance test coming up as it approaches 6,100 and RSI approaches overbought levels. On a breakout a measured move suggests 6,225 could be tested. 6,000 now emerges as a new support level. 

US Indices 

US30 keeps driving higher, clearing 15,100 today. RSI not confirming the new high remains a warning sign that has been ignored so far. Measured resistance appears near 15,400 as support climbs toward the 15,000 breakout point.  

SPX500 continues to advance, finishing near its high for the day, a sign of ongoing accumulation. 1,600 breakout point emerges as new support with next key resistance near a measured 1,655. 

UK and European indices 

UK 100 continues to climb, confirming yesterday’s breakout through 6,550 and driving toward 6,600 increasing the potential for a retest of the 2007 double top peak near 6,750. 

Germany30 has blasted through to another all-time high driving through 8,250. Its 2007 peak near 8,160 now becomes support. A measured move from 2007 and 2013 channels suggests 8,860 could be tested in time, leaving technical room for potential advances. 

France 40 remains in an uptrend continuing to drive toward a test of 4,040 as RSI indicates upward momentum accelerating. Key resistance appears near 41,50 with support in place at the 3,900 breakout point. 

Italy 40 keeps trending higher driving toward 17,250 with its next big test on trend near 17,525. RSI overbought but confirming upward momentum for now. Initial support near 17,080. 

Spain 35 remains under accumulation trading near 8,600 with its next big resistance test nar 8,720 and support moving up toward 8,450. 

Commodities  

Gold has bounced up off of $1,445 key Fibonacci support again but it needs to clear $1,485 and the RSI needs to break through 50 to signal the start of a new up leg. 

Silver is sitting near $24.00 as a bullish ascending triangle continues to form below $24.50 with next resistance on a breakout near $26.00. RSI stubbornly refuses to break out of a downtrend though. 

Copper is breaking out today. It has cleared $3.32 and broken through a downtrend resistance line to signal the start of a new advance. Next upside resistance on trend appears near $3.45 then $3.55. 

US crude is holding steady near $95.75 within a $94.00 to $97.00 trading channel. 

UK crude is sitting on $104.00, a key support/resistance and Fibonacci level. Uptrend has been building and if this continues, $105.50 or $107.00 could be tested but on a breakdown, it could easily drop to retest $100.00.  

Gasoline has stalled near $2.82 but could be active later today off inventories with resistance near $2.86 then $2.95 and support near $2.80 then $2.70. 

Natural Gas continues to drift lower in a seasonal correction with initial support near $3.85 then $3.65 and resistance on a bounce at its $4.00 recent breakdown point. 

FX  

NZDUSD continues to sell off, breaking $0.8400 while RSI drives under 50 indicating momentum has turned into USD’s favour. A key test of broader uptrend support looms near $0.8320. 

NZDAUD is breaking down hard today. A breakout earlier this week that failed suggests an exhaustion throwover that has been followed by a big trend line bust that completed a bearish rising wedge. Next support near $0.8200 then $0.8140.

AUDUSD is trying to stabilize near $1.0150 which has held so far but RSI remains negative indicating potential retests of $1.0100 or even par can’t be ruled out. Resistance falls toward $1.0220 its recent breakdown point. 

USDJPY is drifting lower again and appears to have completed a triple top that suggests 100.00 remains a formidable barrier likely to hold for some time. A break of 97.00 would signal a big trend reversal with next support near 94.30.

AUDJPY continues to drift back toward a retest of par where a breakdown would signal a significant trend change with next support near 97.00. 

EURJPY is trading above 130.00 but below its channel high near 131.00 suggesting it continues to encounter resistance and may be forming a triple top. Next support near 127.30 then 124.40. 

USDSGD is breaking down today, driving through $1.2300 to signal the start of a new down leg on trend. Next significant support near $1.2220 then $1.2160.

 

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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