Morning Technical Notes – Tuesday 4 May

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 is struggling with resistance near 5,200 but the formation of an ascending triangle and maintaining support above its previous high near 5,160 suggests uptrend remains intact. Next measured tests near 5,300 then 5,460 on trend with support near 5,100. 

China A50 is testing 8,120, a Fibonacci level and appears poised for a breakout. RSI has cleared 50 signalling upward momentum building. Next resistance near 8,415, another Fibonacci level with support near 8,060. 

Japan 225 finished trading last week near 14,200 with its 14,000 breakout point emerging as new support and its next measured test near 14,480. RSI near overbought suggests its due for a pause or correction. 

HongKong43 recently broke out over 22,800 and has been driving toward 23,000 as its recovery trend continues. Next key former resistance appears near 23,260 with support rising toward 22,860. 

India 50 slipped back for a second straight day as it starts to consolidate in the 5,925 to 6,000 zone. So far this appears to be a normal rest stop within an larger uptrend with next key resistance at it, its January high closer to 6,100.  

Singapore 30 is pausing in the 3,360 to 3,420 area as it works off an overbought RSI. Next potential upside resistance near 3,430 then 3,530. 

US Indices 

US30 is holding well above Friday’s 13,900 breakout point, while RSI suggests upward momentum accelerating. 15,000 looms as a key psychological hurdle with next measured upside resistance near 15,400. 

SPX500 is holding steady near 1,615, although a breakout of Friday’s 1,600 breakout point as new support remains possible. Next measured resistance appears near 1,625 then 1,665. 

UK and European indices 

UK 100 faces a critical resistance test today having cleared 6,480 on Friday which may become support. It now faces a key hurdle where it could break out into new territory with next measured resistance near 6,740 or complete a double top. 

Germany30 had a small but significant reversal slipping back a bit from 8,150 resistance. RSI near overbought suggests may be due to consolidate above 8,080 support with next measured resistance near 8,260 on trend. 

France 40 held above 3,880, confirming Friday’s breakout and the start of a new uptrend. 4,000 emerges as a key test followed by a measured 4,200. 

Italy 40 is consolidating in the 16,650 to 17,000 range with a symmetrical triangle suggesting a common pause appears underway within a broader uptrend. Next test on a breakout near 17,300. 

Spain 35 is sitting just below 8,500 as it pauses in the 8.425 to 8,575 area. Upward momentum remains intact and it’s not overbought so a drive toward a retest of previous highs near 8,725 remains a possibility. 

Commodities  

Gold continues to consolidate its recent bounce and build a base between $1,445 and $1,485. We still need to see the price clear $1,500 and the RSI clear 50 to confirm the start of a new uptrend.  

Silver continues to form an ascending triangle base below $24.50 with support moving up toward $24.00. RSI still needs to break out of its downtrend to confirm a positive turn in momentum. 

Copper has encountered some downtrend resistance near $3.31 followed by $3.45. RSI retaking 50 suggests upward momentum building with support rising toward $3.25. 

US crude has slumped back toward $95.00 with more support in place near $94.40 after a run at $97.00 failed to overcome major resistance.  

UK crude ran into resistance near $95.30 but continues to hold above $104.00 which has emerged as key support, keeping its emerging recovery trend intact. 

Gasoline is back above $2.80 and appears to be gearing up for a rebound. RSI breakout from a downtrend suggests upward momentum building. Next resistance near $2.95 then $3.05 with support in place near $2.70. 

Natural Gas is breaking down again, falling under $4.00 while RSI dropping under 50 confirms the negative shift in momentum. Next key support tests appear near $3.85 then $3.65. 

Corn has fallen back under $6.75 , erasing last month’s breakout, and could retest trend support near $6.45. 

Wheat failed to break through $7.35 but continues to build an ascending triangle below that level with support rising toward $7.00. 

FX  

NZDUSD has been choppy lately, bouncing around between $0.8450 and $0.8600 but RSI holding above 50 suggests it remains in a primary uptrend  with key resistance at its April high near $0.8675. 

AUDUSD remains under pressure testing $1.0220 with next support near $1.0150. It’s pretty beaten down through and if the RBA gives it reason to rebound, could easily bounce toward $1.0325 or $1.0385. 

USDJPY appears set to take another run at 100.00 with RSI breakout suggesting upward momentum accelerating again. Next measured resistance on a breakout appears near 103.00 with support rising toward 98.00. 

AUDJPY is consolidating Friday’s breakout over 101.00, trading near 102.00 with resistance near 102.75 then 155.25. Can act as a proxy for risk versus defensive trade. 

EURJPY is trading near 130.00, but the key resistance test appears near 131.00 where a breakout would signal the start of a new upleg. Next measured resistance near 134.70 with support rising toward 129.60. 

USDSGD is testing $1,2300 again and appears poised to break down with RSI indicating momentum turning in SGD favour. Next support near $1.2220 and $1.2150 with resistance near $1.2360.  

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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