Morning Technical Notes – Friday 3 May

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 keeps hanging around 5,160 trying to decide whether to complete a big breakout or a double top. RSI suggests upward momentum slowing but not overbought. Break of 5,100 would signal a correction with next measured resistance near 5,320 on a breakout.  

Japan 225 is holding steady near 13,850 within a 13,500 to 14,000 trading channel. 

HongKong43 continues to struggle with 22,800 resistance although support has moved up toward a higher low near 22,500 suggesting that underlying interest remains intact. Could be active off Chinese service PMI. 

India 50 is testing its key 6,000 level today, having cleared 5,975 on anticipation of a rate cut. Next resistance looms near 6,100 with more support near 5,940. 

Singapore 30 is rallying today, breaking out over 3,400. It may be due for a pause, however, with measured resistance approaching near 3,435 and RSI overbought.

US Indices 

US30 remains in an uptrend but RSI suggests upward mo slowing and a double top may be in place. Currently near 14,820 but could bounce around between 14,400 and 14,900 with initial support near 14,690. 

SPX500 remains near the top of its 1,535 to 1,600 trading channel although RSI keeps suggesting upward momentum slowing. Initial support near 1,575. Breakout unlikely ahead of NFP tomorrow. 

UK and European indices 

UK 100 continues to consolidate its recent breakout in the 6,420 to 6,480 range with next resistance near 6,500 and 6,550 and more support near 6,390. 

Germany30 has a key resistance test underway between a retest of an old broken support line near 7,975 and the big 8,000 number. RSI suggests upward momentum intact with room to run. A breakout could retest the March high near 8,070.  

France 40 continues to bump up against 3,880 resistance where a breakout would signal the start of a new upleg where 4,000 could be retested. Probe toward 3,820 suggests though that upward momentum could be easing back. 

Italy 40 successfully retested support and then staged a strong rebound, driving back toward 16,800 with next resistance on trend near 17,025 then 17,260.

Spain 35 has had an active day today bouncing around between 8,300 and 8,600. A close above 8,500 would confirm the start of a new upleg on trend with next resistance near 8,650 and 8,720. 

Commodities  

Gold successfully retested the key $1,445 Fibonacci level as new support and has rebounded toward $1,475 and caught up to platinum. Current resistance near $1,485 with a run at $1,550 possible if it can clear the big $1,500 hurdle. 

Silver has bounced back up toward $24.00 as its trading range moves up toward the $23.25 to $24.75 area. RSI still needs to break out of its downtrend to confirm a positive change in momentum. 

Copper successfully retested $3.04 and appears to have completed a bullish double bottom. Initial resistance on a bounce near $3.13 then $3.24. 

US crude is staging a big rebound today, rallying up from $90.50 through $93.00. It next faces a significant resistance test near $94.40. 

UK crude bounced off of $98.80 setting a higher low and has retaken $100.00 and $101.75 in a sign that base building continues. RSI still needs to clear 50 to confirm a turnaround. Next resistance near $104.00. 

Gasoline is currently retesting $2.70 with more support near $2.60 and initial resistance near $2.82. 

Natural Gas is staging a major breakdown today. Price has nosedived toward $4.00 while RSI broke below 50 confirming that momentum has turned negative and a big correction commenced. Next key support near $3.85 then $3.65. 

Orange Juice remains under accumulation with 140 emerging as new support and RSI holding above 50. Next key resistance levels on trend appear near 153 then 167. 

Arabica Coffee is showing signs of bottoming. After over a year of declines, significant support has emerged near 130 while a positive RSI divergence suggests downward momentum fading. Initial resistance near 140 then 152.  

FX  

NZDUSD tried to stabilize but has been unable to retake $0.8500 suggesting it could slump back toward support near $0.8450 to $0.8400 before this correction is over. Next resistance on a bounce near $0.8575. 

AUDUSD has been sliding again today, unable to retake yesterday’s candle close near $1.0280, while RSI remains under 50 indicating its downtrend remains intact. Support appears to be building near $1.0220. 

USDJPY has bounced up off of 97.00 while RSI has successfully retested 50 indicating a new upswing may be underway. Initial resistance near 98.40 then 100.00. 

AUDJPY continues to form a big descending triangle above 100.00. RSI broke 50 suggesting momentum turning in JPY’s favour. Initial resistance falls toward 101.30. 

EURJPY tried to rally but ran into resistance at another lower high near 130.00 as it continues to consolidate in a 127.30 to 131.00 channel. Falling RSI and emerging descending triangle suggest JPY gaining relative strength.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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