Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 has a key resistance test underway today! It’s bumping up against its March high near 5,160 with RSI indicating upward momentum building. Could take a run at 6,200 initially on a breakout followed by a measured 6,290.
China A50 has been base building in the 7,820 to 8,120 range between two key Fibonacci retracement levels. RSI remains stuck below 50 and a descending triangle but could play catch up to Hang Seng today.
Japan 225 remains in an uptrend, currently trading in the 13,500 to 14,000 zone. Growing negative RSI divergence suggests that upward momentum may be slowing. Could be active off data today.
HongKong43 is breaking out of a downtrend, clearing 22,500 which may become support while RSI breaks out over 50 indicating upward momentum accelerating. Next resistance test appears near 22,800 then 23,000.
India 50 is hanging around 5,900 as it consolidates last week’s breakout. It has been holding the gap above 5,850, a bullish sign with next resistance near 5,975 then 6,100.
Singapore30 continues to climb building on its breakout over 3,335. Next measured resistance on trend near 3,435.
US and European indices
US30 is steadily advancing on the high end of a 14,400 to 14,900 trading band, having cleared 14,775. Declining RSI suggests upward momentum slowing however.
SPX500 is taking another run at 1,600 but RSI still suggests a shift into neutral. If it continues to struggle with resistance, a correction within its 1,535-1,600 channel remains possible with next measured resistance on a breakout near 1,665.
Germany30 has broken out over 7,920 while RSI has broken out over 50 confirming the start of a new upswing with next key resistance near 8,000 then 8,080.
Gold is consolidating its recent big bounce between $1,445, a key Fibonacci level, and $1,500. Next resistance on a breakout near $1,550.
Silver is holding between its $24.00 breakout point and $24.80 with next key resistance near $26.00. RSI still needs to break out of a downtrend to confirm a positive change in momentum.
Platinum is breaking out today, clearing $1,500, while RSI suggests upward momentum building. Next resistance appears near $1,525 then $1,555 with support rising toward $1,485.
Copper is consolidating above $3.20 having bounced up from $3.15 with resistance in place near $3.29 then $3.40.
US crude is breaking out today, clearing $93.40 with next upside resistance possible near $94.675 then $95.65.
UK crude is breaking through a two month trend resistance line today, but price needs to clear $104.00, a key Fibonacci level and the RSI still needs to clear 50 to confirm the start of a new uptrend.
Orange juice remains under accumulation with RSI holding 50 indicating upward momentum remains intact. Currently testing 140 as new support, next upside resistance appears near 153 then 167 on trend.
Corn is breaking out of an ascending triangle base today through $6.75 with upward momentum pickup confirmed by an RSI breakout over 50. It still needs to clear $7.00 and fill in an old gap to confirm the start of a new uptrend.
Wheat is rallying toward the high end of its $6.70 to $7.15 trading channel. It appears poised for a breakout with next resistance near $7.35 then a measured $7.60.
Soybeans have broken out of a two month downtrend and with RSI accelerating, appear to be trending toward a retest of the high end of its $13.60 to $15.00 trading channel.
FX this morning
NZDUSD has decisively stormed back above $0.8500. With RSI holding 50, confirming that its uptrend remains intact, a run toward $0.8585 or a retest of the $0.8670 high remain possible.
AUDUSD is starting to turn up again, clearing $1.0350 while RSI suggests a pickup in upward momentum. Next resistance levels on an upswing appear near $1.0400 then $1.0500.
USDJPY continues to struggle with 100.00 resistance and given extremely overbought situation, could drop back toward a retest of 97.20 or 96.50 with USD weakening.
AUDJPY is starting to roll down from 103.00 while RSI suggests momentum shifting downward. A break of 100.00 would suggest a deeper correction possible with next support near 98.80.
EURJPY is rolling down from a double top near 131.00 and appears poised for a breakdown. RSI continues to turn lower indicating shifting momentum with next support near 127.30 then 124.50.
USDSGD is breaking down today, falling through $1.2360 to complete a descending triangle. RSI suggests momentum turning in SGD favour with next support near $1.2300 then $1.2220.