Today’s technical notes on forex, indices and commodities from Colin Cieszynski
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 continues to base build in the 4,920 to 5,030 range. RSI peeking above 50 suggests the correction may have run its course for now. Next key test on a breakout near 5,100.
Japan 225 is trading up to new highs following the G-20 meeting. Currently near 13,620, yesterday’s 13,500 breakout point has been coming in as new support. Next measured resistance near 14,000.
HongKong43 is breaking out today, clearing 22,000 and the high end of a falling channel. An RSI move above 50 would confirm the start of an upswing. Near resistance near 22,280 then 22,500 with support near 21,920.
China A50 is consolidating yesterday’s big rally above 8,120. RSI clearing 50 suggests upward momentum growing. Next potential resistance near 8.270 then 8,420 a key Fibonacci level.
India 50 is breaking out today. Clearing 5,800 has broken a second trend resistance line while climbing RSI confirms upward mo building with technical room to rally. Next resistance near 5,970 then 6,120.
Singapore 30 is sitting on 3,300 as it continues to consolidate in a channel between 3,230 and 3,340. RSI suggests momentum neutral.
US and European indices
US30 held trend support near 14,480 and has rebounded toward 14,575 with next resistance near 14,670 and 14,760.
SPX500 is holding steady near 1,555. RSI shows upward momentum still slowing and it appears an H&S top may be forming with shoulders near 1,575, a neckline near 1,535 and initial support on a breakdown near 1,500.
Germany30 is stabilizing near 7,500 within a 7,440 to 7,560 trading range in what still appears to be a pause within a larger correction.
Gold is bouncing back today, retaking the $1,400 level. It faces stiff resistance near $1.445, a 38% retracement of the 2008-2011 uptrend that it needs to retake to call off its broader downtrend.
Silver is starting to form an ascending triangle base between $22.00 and $24.00 with initial Fibonacci resistance possible on a breakout near $24.40.
Platinum is stabilizing in the $1,400 to $1,450 range as a positive RSI divergence suggests downward momentum slowing.
Copper remains in a downtrend with resistance falling toward $3.16, and support in place near $3.08 then $3.00.
US crude has failed to retake $89.00 but has been attracting support above $87.00. Next resistance on a breakout near $90.00 then $91.00.
UK crude is breaking out today with the price retaking $100.00 and the RSI climbing back up out of oversold territory, both positive technical signals. Next upside resistance appears near $102.50 then $104.00.
FX this morning
NZDUSD is hanging around in the $0.8400 to $0.8500 range with RSI neutral. A broken downtrend line suggests further weakness possible with next support near $0.8300 then $0.8160, with upside resistance on a turnaround in the $0.8600 to $86.40 area.
AUDUSD continues to backslide, remaining below $1.0300 with next support near $1.0200 and $1.0150. Initial resistance on a rebound near $1.0360.
USDJPY is bumping up against 100.00 once again. A break through that level would signal the start of a new upleg which could probe toward a measured 103.25. A failure, however, would complete a double top with initial support near 96.75.
AUDJPY has started to encounter some resistance near 103.00 which would set a lower high if it holds. It still needs to take out 100.00 to call off the current uptrend with initial support possible near 101.00.
EURJPY is retesting resistance in the 130.00-131.00 area. A breakout would signal a new upleg with next measured resistance near 137.50. A failure would complete a double top with initial potential support near 127.50.
USDSGD is breaking out of a month-long downtrend, clearing $1.2360 and running toward $1.2400 with next resistance on trend near $1.2440 and $1.2520.