Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 remains stuck below 5,000 with RSI stuck under 50 indicating momentum turning increasingly negative. Next key support levels appear near 4,920 and 4,850. 

Japan 225 continues to encounter resistance at a lower high near 13,400 with support in place near 14,000 then 13,800. 

HongKong43 passed a key support test near 21,350 earlier today. It needs to retake 22,000 to call off a falling channel downtrend with initial resistance possible near 21,800 and more support near 21,200. 

China A50 continues to stabilize near the low end of a 7,820 to 8,120 trading range between key 50% and 62% Fibonacci retracements. 

India 50 is breaking out again today, rallying through 5,700 and putting downtrend resistance near 5.825 in sight followed by 5,860 and 5.940. 

US and European indices 

US30 remains in an uptrend but is stuck in the lower part of a 14,530 to 14,900 trading channel with next support on a breakdown near 14,400.  

SPX500 continues to hold above 1,535 but looks increasingly vulnerable with RSI falling under 50 and rising channel support faltering. Resistance falls toward 1,560 with next support on a breakdown near 1,520 then 1,500.  

Germany30 tried to find support in early trading but was unable to hold on and broke down again indicating distribution continues. Next downside support appears near 7,440 then 7,200 with resistance near 7,500 and 7,560. 

 

Commodities today  

Gold rebounded from $1,350 to $1,400 this morning but was unable to get any further and has started to slump back as it continues to get knocked around in the wake of its recent major selloff. 

Copper is staging a positive reversal today dropping toward $3.10 and rebounding strongly. Signs of selling exhaustion have started to appear between a positive RSI divergence and an emerging hammer candle. Initial resistance appears near $3.20 then $3.32.  

US crude remains volatile, bouncing around in the $85.50 to $88.00 range today. RSI near support and it’s trying to build a base after a big downdraft.  

Natural Gas has broken out to a new 52 week high (really not a typo) with next key resistance levels near $4.45 and $4.65. Negative RSI divergence suggests retest of $4.20 breakout point still possible. 

FX this morning 

NZDUSD remains in a downdraft with resistance falling toward $0.8475. $0.8400 has been holding so far but if breached, a retest of $0.8365 or $0.8300 appears possible within its broader trading channel. 

AUDUSD keeps backsliding with resistance falling toward $1.0340 from $1.0400 and the pair breaking $1.0300. RSI suggests downward momentum remains intact with next support near $1.0250 then $1.0200. 

USDJPY continues to climb up off a higher low set earlier in the week near 95.60, back toward the middle of a 96.75 to 100.00 trading channel with major resistance possible near the key century barrier. 

AUDJPY has stabilized in the 100.00 to 102.00 range. Its primary uptrend remains intact above 98.50 with next resistance near 104.00 then 105.25. 

EURJPY is holding steady near 128.00 with resistance near 128.75 and 130.00 and support near 127.25 and 124.50.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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