Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 has a key test of 5,000 underway today. Rebound momentum has been stalling and it could slip back to retest 4,925 or 4,850 with the potential for a run at 5,110 possible on a breakout. 

Japan 225 successfully bounced up off of 13,000 keeping its primary uptrend intact. Channel resistance remains in place near 13,500. 

HongKong43 remains under distribution, steadily declining in a falling channel. RSI staying under 50 indicates downward momentum remains intact. Next support near 21.360 with initial resistance near 21,820 then 22,000. 

China A50 continues to drift toward the bottom of a 7,820-8,120 trading channel bounded by 50% and 62% retracement levels of a previous uptrend. Next support on a breakdown near 7,760 then 7,440.  

India 50 is breaking out today over 5,640, with the index blasting through a downtrend line and RSI moving back above 50. Currently testing 5,700 next resistance on trend appears near 5,750 then 5,850.

US indices 

US30 found support near 14,530 and has bounced for nearly 200 points already, clearing 14,680 initial resistance with its next key test closer to 14,900.  

SPX500 successfully tested trend support near 1,535 and has bounced back toward 1,565 with upside resistance near 1,572 and 1,600.


Commodities today  

Gold has bounced up off of $1,320 overnight which was close to a 50% retracement of the 2008-2011 uptrend. Failed to retake $1,400 and has rolled over again. 

Silver has stabilized near $23.70, after a huge drop yesterday and bounce off of $22.00. Initial resistance appears near $24.40, a 62% retracement of the 2008-2011 uptrend. 

Copper successfully tested $3.20 support and has rebounded toward $3.26 but it remains in a downtrend and faces resistance near $3.31, and $3.42. 

US crude has bounced up off of $86.00 with more support possible closer to $85.00. Currently near $88.50, initial resistance appears near $89.00, $90.00 and $91.75. 

UK crude has broken the key $100.00 barrier and a 62% retracement of its previous uptrend, which have held as a positive RSI divergence emerges. Initial resistance possible near $104.00 the 50% retracement level.

FX this morning 

NZDUSD has rebounded toward a potentially make or break retest of $0.8500. If it can get through a retest of $0.8675 appears possible. If it fails, however, the pair could retest support near $0.8410 or $0.8300 initially.   

AUDUSD has bounced off of $1.0300 toward $1.0380 but RSI remained below 50 suggesting that its current downswing remains intact with next support on trend near $1.2050 then $1.0150. Resistance near $1.0400 then $1.0450. 

USDJPY bounced up off of 95.80 toward 97.50 and appears to be moving into a 96.75 to 100.00 trading range.  

AUDJPY successfully tested support near 100.00 while RSI held 50 keeping its uptrend intact. Resistance appears near 101.80 then 104.20. 

EURJPY has bounced back above 127.50 and rallied toward 128.50 but faces formidable resistance in the 129.30 to 130.30 range.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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