Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 failed to retake 5,000 and has come under pressure, breaking 4,925. RSI suggests downward momentum accelerating. Next support on trend near 4,850 then 4,800. 

Japan 225 is rolling over hard, falling back toward 13,300 but as overbought RSI unwinds, 13,000 or possibly even trend support near the 12,670 previous breakout point. 

HongKong43 faltered at a lower high near 22,000 while RSI remains under 50 indicating its downtrend remains intact with next support on trend near 21,620 then 21,330. 

China A50 finding support near 7,820, a 62% retracement of its previous uptrend. Initial resistance at the 50% retracement level near 8,120. 

India 50 is trying to stabilize in the 5,500 to 5,600 range but it needs to fill in a gap and overcome trend resistance near 5,670 to signal an upswing. 

Singapore 30 is holding steady near the middle of a 3,230 to 3,340 trading channel with RSI suggesting momentum neutral.

US indices 

US30’s RSI has rolled back under 70 from overbought territory, a bearish technical sign. It has fallen back from 14,900 toward a retest of its 14,675 recent breakout point with key trend support closer to 14,400. 

SPX500 is breaking down today, taking out 1,575. Its next key test of previous and uptrend support appears near 1,550 followed by 1,535.


Commodities today  

Gold is having its worst day in over 30 years. It plunged through $1,400 tried to rebound but failed and has dropped again. It remains well below 1,445, a 38% Fibonacci level. RSI oversold but it could complete a 50% retracement to test $1,300 before this is over. 

Silver sliced through the 62% retracement of its 2008-2011 rally near $24.40 and has kept on dropping. It did bounce off of $22.60 after getting deeply oversold but if that fails, $20.00 could potentially be retested.  

Copper bounced off of $3.20 but remains in a downtrend with RSI holding under 50 and the metal unable to retake $3.28 let alone $3.37. Next support on a breakdown near $3.00. 

US crude was unable to find support $89.00 and remains under distribution in the wake of H&S tops in both the price and RSI being completed. WTI remains at risk of a retest of $85.00 with initial resistance on a bounce near $90.00. 

UK crude has fallen into a potential support zone between 50% ($104.00) and 62% ($100.24) retracements of the previous uptrend with RSI near oversold territory. The century mark emerges as a big psychological barrier. 

FX this morning 

NZDUSD fell out of bed, sliding through $0.8500 and breaking trend support near $0.8435. Next support appears near $0.8380 then $0.8320 and $0.8300.  

AUDUSD plunged from above $1.0500 to under $1.0340 new resistance. RSI breaking 50 suggests downward mo accelerating. $1.0300 holding so far with next support near $1.0250 and $1.0150. 

USDJPY continues to fall back from 100.000 on US comments and overbought RSI. Initial support near 96.75 then 94.25 in a correction.   

AUDJPY has been knocked down from 105.00 to a retest of 100.00 with a retest of 97.30 trend support possible if the century mark fails to hold. 

EURJPY has rolled back down from 130.00 resistance correcting an overbought RSI and takes out its 127.30 previous breakout point. Next support in a deepening correction near 124.50. 

USDSGD continues to form a descending triangle between $1.2400 and $1.2350. RSI suggests momentum remains downward. Next support on breakdown near $1.2300 then $1.2220.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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