Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific Indices 

Australia 200 continues to climb following a breakout over 5,000. RSI moving above 50 suggests upward momentum continues to build. A retest of the breakout point can’t be ruled out though. Next resistance appears near 5,070 then 5,100. 

Japan 225 is starting to stall having achieved a 13,490 measured objective and with RSI overbought it could be due for a pause or correction below 13,550 with initial support near 13,380 and 13,190. 

HongKong43 is trying to fill in an old gap and needs to clear 22,300 to do so with next resistance near 22,500 then 22,800 with support rising toward 22,000. 

China A50 remains stuck below 8,000 with key Fibonacci resistance in place near 8,120 and current support near 7,950 then 7,820 the low end of the current 50%-62% retracement zone. 

Singapore 30 has crept back above 3,300 and continues to form a bullish ascending triangle below 3,335, while RSI holding 50 and turning upward suggests upward momentum remains intact. The next measured resistance is near 4,345 on a breakout. 

US Indices 

US30 remains under accumulation, trading near yesterday’s all-time high above 14,800. Next measured resistance on trend appears near 14,950 with support moving up toward 14,780. 

SPX500 has paused near 1,585 and yesterday’s high. It remains in an uptrend with next measured resistance near 1,600 then 1,615 and support at yesterday’s 1,575 breakout point. 

Commodities 

Gold has been finding support in the $1,550 to $1,560 area with initial upside resistance near $1,575 then $1,590. 

Copper is holding above $3.37 but still really needs to retake $3.45 to call off its current downtrend. 

US crude has been pounded back under $94.00 but is trying to stabilize near $93.10 with more support near $92.70 and $91.75. 

UK crude has fallen to retest the low end of tis $104.00 to $107.00 trading channel and appears poised for a breakdown with next potential support near$102.50 then $100.00. 

FX 

NZDUSD continues to rally, driving toward $0.8635 with next resistance in the $0.8800 to $0.8840 area near the 2011 peak. Overbought RSI suggests it could be due for a correction possibly to retest the $0.8575 breakout point.  

AUDUSD remains on a tear and isn’t overbought yet but could start to struggle with resistance in the $1.0600 to $1.0620 zone the high end of the current broad trading channel. Support remains in place near $1.0500. 

USDJPY is climbing again today and is once again testing 100.00, a key psychological barrier that coincides with a 50% retracement of the 2007-2011 downtrend, a major Fibonacci level. Next resistance near 105.60 with support near 98.00. 

AUDJPY keeps soaring, breaking through its 2008 high and 105.00 today. Next big test on trend is the 2007 double top peak near 107.50 but with RSI overbought a retest of 104.25 support remains possible. 

EURJPY is breaking out today clearing 130.00 although an overbought RSI and negative divergence suggests the advance may be tiring. Nest measured resistance near 126.00 with support near the 127.25 breakout point. 

USDSGD is testing $1.2360 and looks poised to resume its downtrend with RSI holding below 50. Next support on a breakdown appears near $1.2300 then $1.2220 with resistance near $1.2400. 

 

 

 

 

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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