Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 is trying to stabilize after bouncing up off of 4,840, a 30% retracement of its previous uptrend. RSI also appears to be levelling off. Initial resistance appears near 4.925, a former support level then 4,965. 

Japan 225 continues to scream higher but is starting to approach its next measured test near 13,490. With RSI overbought again, it could be due for some backing and filling with support near 13,105 then 12,780. 

HongKong43 remains under pressure, breaking down through 21,750, a 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Key trend support appears near 21,350 with next Fibonacci support closer to 21,050. Initial resistance to a rebound near 22,000. 

China A50 has bounced up off of 7,820, having completed a 62% retracement. Initial resistance appears near 7,930 then 8,120, the 50% retracement level. 

India 50 has successfully tested 5,530 support and with a positive RSI divergence suggesting downward momentum easing, could be due for a rebound. Initial resistance on a bounce near 5,600 then 5,740. 

Singapore 30 has drifted back toward the middle of a 3,230 to 3,320 trading channel. RSI suggests momentum has gone neutral at the moment. 

US indices 

US30 is holding near 14,575 but a recent negative RSI divergence suggests upward momentum fading. Initial channel support appears near 14,400 with key trend support near 14,320 in a correction. 

SPX500 looks vulnerable. Recent high was not confirmed by the RSI, a negative divergence that indicated slowing upward momentum. It has broken initial trend support near 1,560 but has held key rising channel support near 1,540 so far followed by 1,500. 

Commodities today  

Gold has stalled near $1,575 after bouncing back Friday. A positive RSI divergence suggests downward momentum slowing but it still has a lot of work to do to confirm a new uptrend with key resistance near $1,600 and $1,620. 

Silver has bounced up out of its $26.50 to $27.00 support zone toward $27.25. RSI climbing up out of oversold territory suggests it could be due for a bounce with next resistance near $28.25, a former support level. 

Copper has retaken $3.37 as it bounces up off of $3.30, signalling the start of a new upswing with next potential resistance near $3.45.

US crude is trading near $93.00 between $91.75 shoulder support and $94.00 neckline resistance from a previous failed reverse H&S base.

FX this morning 

NZDUSD successfully retested $0.8410 trend support and continues to advance on a retest of $0.8500 channel resistance. 

AUDUSD bounced off of $1.0340 while RSI has held 50 suggesting the recent correction may be fading. Initial resistance on a bounce near $1.0425 then $1.0500 with next support on a failure near $1.0280. 

USDJPY is breaking out again today through 98.40 which may become support and then 99.00 for the first time since 2009. 100 presents a potential psychological barrier that coincides with a 50% retracement of the 2007-2011 downtrend. 

AUDJPY continues to fly but is starting to approach major resistance levels near 104.25 and 107.50 that have been in place for 5-6 years. Overbought RSI suggests correction possible with initial support near 100.00. 

EURJPY is breaking out today, blasting through 127.30 and out of a consolidation channel. Currently testing 130.00, next measured resistance appears near 136.00.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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