Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 has been knocked from the top to bottom of its 4,920 to 5,020 channel and appears poised for another breakdown. RSI suggests downward mo accelerating. Next support near 4,860 then 38% retracement near 4,840.
Japan 225 has a key test underway at 12,200. A failure would retest trend and channel break as new resistance and signal a correction where 12,000 or 11,800 cld be tested. A rally would call off correction and suggest potential retest of 12,380.
HongKong43 has run into resistance near 22,550 and started to retreat with initial support near 22,275 then 22,100.
China A50 continues to consolidate between 7,900 and 8,120 with more potential Fibonacci support near 7,820.
Singapore 30 tried to break out over 3,300 overnight but failed. Holding 3,300 but if that fails a retest of 3,235 channel support would be possible.
US30 is getting pounded today heading for a bearish engulfing candle or a near key reversal. Negative RSI divergence suggested up mo fading and break of 14,585 suggests a correction starting that could retest 14,530 or 14,400.
SPX500 is breaking down today. It has taken out 1,560 trend support while RSI has started to slip suggesting that it could retest the low end of its 1,535 to 1,570 trading channel if 1,550 fails.
Gold is getting crushed for a second straight day, taking out channel support near $1,560.Bounced off $1,550 but if that fails $1,525 or measured $1,500 could be tested. Initial resistance falls toward $1,575.
Silver has been pounded again today but RSI is getting oversold and it’s finding support in the $26.00-$27.00 zone again so selloff may be nearing an end for now.
Copper remains below its $3.37 breakdown point, keeping its downtrend intact with next support near $3.32 then the $3.25-$3.30 area.
US Crude was pounded back toward $94.00 and a retest of its neckline breakout point. Success would keep its uptrend intact with resistance near $95.25 then $97.40. Failure would suggest a retest of $91.75 shoulder support.
FX this morning
NZDUSD remains supported above $0.8400 and in an upswing but faces major channel resistance near $0.8500. In a pullback situation, initial support could appear near $0.8360 then $0.8280.
AUDUSD remains in a upswing despite commodity weakness. Currently testing $1.0500 next resistance on a breakout near $1.0580 but could easily drop back toward $1.0400 or $1.0340 in a correction.
USDSGD remains below $1.2400 downtrend resistance with next potential support near $1.23450 hen $1.2270. Next resistance on a rebound near $1.2440.
USDJPY is steady near 93.00 but could be active today. 94.30 breakdown point has held indicating new downtrend while RSI suggests mo moving in JPY favour. Next support near 91.00 then 93.30. More resistance near 95.00 then 96,50 on a rally.
AUDJPY is staging a key support test today at 97.10. RSI falling under 50 suggests it may be poised for a breakdown with next support near 96.00 then 95.00 with initial resistance on a bounce near 98.20.
EURJPY remains below 120.00 and RSI under 50 confirming its recent breakdown and start of a new downtrend. Next support appears near 116.50 then 113.20 on trend with resistance near 121.90.
|Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Senior Market Analyst
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