Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices

Australia 200 has been trying to build support but has been unable to muster up enough strength to retake 5,000. On a breakout next resistance appears near 5,050 and 5,165. A failure would suggest 4,920 or 4,840 could be retested. 

Japan 225 is trying to rebound from a major breakdown yesterday but the channel and trend breakdown point near 12,200 has emerged as new resistance. RSI suggests momentum turning negative with next support near 12,000 then 11,800. 

HongKong43 continues to stabilize in the 22,150-22,500 area while RSI suggests downward momentum continues to ease. It still needs to clear trend and Fibonacci resistance near 22,600 to call off its current downtrend. 

China A50 is trying to build a base near 8,000 having dropped into the 50% to 62% retracement zone. A move over 8,120 would signal the start of a new upswing with next resistance near 8,400. Current support appears near 7,940. 

India50 has bounced up from 5,600 toward 5,750 and continues to advance. It needs to clear a key resistance line near 5,860, however, to call off the current two month downtrend. 

Singapore30 continues to test the high end of a 3,235 to 3,325 trading channel. Rising RSI suggests upward momentum building with technical room to run. Next measured resistance on a breakout appears near 3,415.  

US indices 

US30 is breaking out today, clearing 14,585, which may become support and blasting through 14,600 while RSI indicates upward momentum accelerating. Next measured resistance appears near 14,775. 

SPX500 has resumed its uptrend after bouncing off of 1,460 higher support. A bullish ascending triangle is forming below 1,570 while RSI remains above 50. Next measured resistance on a breakout appears in the 1,595 to 1,605 area. 

Commodities today  

Gold is breaking down today! It took out $1,590 which may become resistance while RSI fell back under 50 indicating selling pressure has increased and its broader downtrend has resumed. Next support near $1,575 and $1,560. 

Silver remains below $28.25 confirming yesterday’s breakdown and the start of a new downleg with next support in the $26.50 to $27.00 area. 

Copper has retested $3.38 as new resistance, confirming yesterday’s breakdown and leaving the door open to a retest of the key $3.25-$3.30 support zone. 

US crude is consolidating recent gains in the $96.40 to $97.00 range working off an overbought RSI and consolidating a big rally. More resistance near $97.50 with more support near $95.75. 

FX this morning 

NZDUSD is breaking out again today, driving through $0.8400 which may become support. RSI suggests upward mo accelerating and that a retest of the channel high near $85.00 appears possible in the near term. 

AUDUSD continues to climb within a broader channel as RSI indicates upward momentum remains intact. Picking up off a higher low near $1.0390 with initial resistance near $1.0500 followed by $1.0610. 

USDSGD continues to trend lower with RSI under 50 suggesting momentum remains in favour of SGD. Currently testing $1.2400, it remains in a downtrend below $1.2425 with next downside support near $1.2350 then $1.2300. 

USDJPY is breaking down again today as JPY strengthens. RSI suggests pendulum swinging in favour of JPY at the moment. Having taken out and retested 93.50 as new resistance, next downside support appears near 92.25 then 91.00. 

AUDJPY is testing 97.00, a key support/resistance level that could make or break the current uptrend. On a bounce, the channel high near 100 could be retested while a failure could set up a retest of key trend support near 96.30. 

EURJPY continues to break down, trading below its former trend support line near 120.00. RSI indicates downward momentum accelerating. Next downside support appears near 118.50 then 116.75.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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1 Response to Morning Technical Notes

  1. Graham Turville-Ince says:

    Gold this morning – looking very tired and all hell could break loose if some larger holders of GLD started offloading. Some technical perspective below if you like:

    Gold / AUD ( current level 1, 508 ) : Teetering on the edge ?

    1, 510-20 : Huge support base since Dec 2011 being eroded ( denoted by arrows on chart below )

    1, 511 : 61. 8 % of 2011- 2012 rally under threat.

    1, 500 : Psychological round number support.

    A clear break of 1, 500 should see support at 1, 440-50 tested in fairly quick order. This level marks the 76.4 % of the 2011-12 rise with the 200 Week MA @ 1, 447 providing additional support ( no close below since July 2005).

    Gold / USD 1, 575 : Consolidation in a 1, 550- 1, 620/30 range continues as a prelude to the next move. The price action is very similar to last year when a selloff starting in Feb was followed by a 1, 530- 1, 640 contracting range trade before breaking higher to 1, 795 in Oct.

    Immediate support 1, 550- 60 , with major and critical support at 1, 521- 27. A clear break of latter, while unlikely, will be very bearish.

    Silver 27.20 : Silver is starting to accelerate its break lower from the consolidation range from mid- Feb. We are moving towards a major support zone, hence guard against too bearish a stance.

    Immediate support 26.90, 26.20 and then the major / critical 26. 05 – 15 lows of 2, 011 and 2012.

    I am involved in funding analysis for mining companies – very difficult at the moment. Big changes are on the near term horizon I believe especially where inflated costs are concerned


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