Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 is trying to stabilize above 4,925 but continues to struggle with 5,000 new resistance. RSI still under 50 suggests downward momentum remains intact.
Japan 225 continues to consolidate in a channel between 12,200 and 12,670 as it works off an overbought RSI condition.
HongKong43 successfully filled in a gap clearing 22,420 which may become suport. RSI moving up but needs to clear 50 to confirm. Next resistance near 22,600, a 23% retracement level followed by downtrend resistance near 22,800.
China A50 keeps struggling with 8,415 resistance which coincides with a 38% retracement level. RSI below 50 keeps downward mo intact. Initial support near 8,240 followed by the 50 fibonacci retracement near 8,115.
Singapore30 appears poised for a breakout. It’s testing the high end of a 3,235 to 3,320 trading channel. RSI has broken out of a downtrend suggesting upward mo accelerating. Next measured upside resistance appears near 3,405.
US30 continues to struggle with 14,585 resistance. RSI rolling over and index failing to hold 14,500 suggest selling pressure increasing. Initial support appears near 14,465 followed by channel support near 14,335.
SPX500 keeps pounding against a wall of resistance at its 2007 high and channel high near 1,565 while RSI suggests upward momentum easing. In a correction, 1,555 or 1,535 could be tested with next measured resistance on a breakout near 1,595.
Gold is back above $1,600 and remains in an upswing as long as it can hold above $1,585 trend support. Key resistance remains in place near $1,620. Next support on a break appears near $1,560.
Silver is testing the low end of its $28.25-$29.50 channel. A failure here would signal the start of a new downleg with next measured support near $27.00 and bode ill for gold.
Copper remains under distribution with $3.45 old support increasingly turning into key resistance with next downside support near $3.37 then $3.25-$3.30.
US crude ran into resistance near $96.00 and has retreated in normal backing and filling after a sharp and short rally pushed RSI into overbought territory. Current support appears near $95.30 then $94.00 with next resistance near $98.00 on trend.
UK crude continues to build a base while RSI upturn suggests upward momentum building. A break of $110.00 needed to confirm the start of a recovery lay with next resistance near $111.00 then $113.00.
FX this morning
NZDUSD has stalled near $0.8375 holding in the upper half of a $0.8160 to $0.8500 trading channel. Initial support in a pullback appears near $0.8345 then $0.8300.
AUDUSD has stalled short of $1.0500 but remains in an upswing above $1.0420 within a broader $1.0150 to $1.0600 trading channel.
USDJPY is sitting right on 94.30 trend support trying to decide whether to turn lower or not. RSI is sitting on 50. Initial resistance on a bounce appears near 95.00 then 96.60 with support on a break down near 93.50 then 92.20.
AUDJPY remains steady in the middle of a 97.00 to 100.00 trading channel.
EURJPY continues to trend lower and has a key support test underway. A break of 120.00 would confirm a decisive shift in JPY’s favour that would signal a new downtrend starting where 118.60 or 116.50 could be tested initially.