Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 has paused in the 4,920 and 4,980 range near a 23% retracement level. RSI below 50 suggests this could be a normal consolidation within a wider correction and that a 38% retracement toward 4,840 could still be completed. 

Japan 225 is holding steady near 12,500 within a 12,200 to 12,675 trading channel. 

HongKong43 is trying to stabilize in the 22,000-22,400 range as RSI suggests downward momentum easing. It still needs to fill in a gap and clear 22,425 to signal an upturn with next resistance near 22,600 then 22,800. 

China A50 has been pounded again, dropping back under 8,400 a Fibonacci level, while RSI failed to clear 50 suggesting downward mo remains intact. It has started to fill in a gap with key support in the 8,100-8,150 zone. 

US indices 

US30 is sitting near 14,540 after a rally stalled at 14,550 channel resistance. Indicating it may still have some work to do to ease an overbought RSI condition. 

SPX500 has been climbing toward the high end of its 1,535 to 1,565 trading channel trying to decide if it can muster up enough strength for a breakout over its 2007 highs. Next measure resistance would appear near 1,595 on trend.  

Commodities today  

Gold is sitting on $1,600 today. The direction it eventually breaks out from its current $1,590 to $1,620 trading channel may indicate the trend for the next several months. 

Copper remains in a downtrend as it continues to struggle with $3.45 resistance at an old support level. $3.55 could be retested on a breakout or $3.25-$3.30 should it remain under distribution. 

FX this morning

 NZDUSD continues to climb with RSI indicating upward momentum continues to accelerate with technical room to run. Currently testing $0.8375, next resistance appears near $0.8420 then $0.8500 with support rising toward $0.8340.  

AUDUSD continues to climb within its current channel clearing $1.0460 and testing $1.0500 with next key channel resistance near $1.0610. RSI suggests upward momentum remains intact and pair not overbought yet. 

USDJPY has a major trend support test underway today at 94.30. RSI holding 50 suggests uptrend remains intact which could see a bounce within the current channel back toward 96.60. A break would signal a new downtrend with next support near 93.00 then 92.10 and 90.80. 

AUDJPY keeps bouncing back and forth in a channel within 97.00 and 100.00 as it consolidates within a wider uptrend. 

EURJPY has retested yesterday’s trend line breakdown point near 121.75 as new resistance, confirming the start of a new downswing. RSI suggests momentum turning in JPY favour. Next support near 120.00 then 118.50 and 116.50. 

USDSGD is breaking down in a big way today with the pair breaking an uptrend line and RSI breaking under 50 indicating a decisive shift in SGD’s favour. Next downside support appears near $1.2400 then $1.2340 then $1.2230.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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