Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 failed to retake 5,000 yesterday while RSI remained below 50, indicating that its correction remains intact. Having completed a 23% retracement falling under 4,965 the 38% level near 4,840 could potentially be tested. 

Japan 225 topped out at a lower high overnight and RSI rolling down suggests that upward momentum has stalled and a correction may be starting. A retest of the low end of the 12,200 to 12,670 current channel looks possible followed by 12,000. 

HongKong43 has been trying to rally after a successful retest of 22,000 but it still needs to fill in a gap and clear 22,425 to confirm the start of an upswing with next resistance after that near 22,790. 

China A50 is consolidating its recent turnaround rally holding above 8,410 a Fibonacci level with next resistance near 8.625 then 8,780. 

India 50 is trying to stabilize near 5,600. A positive RSI divergence suggests downward mo slowing but a retest of 5,575 remains possible. Initial resistance on a bounce near 5,720 then 5,850. 

US indices 

US30 is testing 14,550 channel resistance today. Next measured resistance on a breakout appears near 14,760 with support moving up toward 14,500. 

SPX500 failed to clear its 2007 high near 1,565, confirming ongoing resistance. Support appears near 1,555 then 1,535 in a correction with next measured resistance near 1,595 on a breakout. 

Commodities today  

Gold bounced off of trend support near $1,590 and attracted a lot of support below $1,600, suggesting that its upswing remains intact. It still needs to clear $1,620 and particularly $1,635 to confirm the start of a new uptrend. 

Copper continues to struggle with $3.45, a former breakdown point. On a rally, $3.55 could be tested initially with support near $3.38 if distribution resumes. 

US crude is breaking out today. A decisive move above $94.00, which may become support, completed a reverse H&S base with next prior resistance near $95.25 then $97.00. Support climbs toward $93.65.  

FX this morning 

NZDUSD continues to rebound with support moving up above $0.8300 while RSI indicates upward momentum continues to accelerate. Currently near $0.8350, next key resistance appears near $0.8420 and $0.8490.   

AUDUSD is testing $1.0460 and with RSI climbing, appears poised for a breakout. Next potential resistance appears at the channel high near $1.0600 with support moving up toward $1.0430.  

USDJPY has a key test underway. It has dipped under 94.30 channel and trend line support while RSI is testing 50. Any further weakness would signal a new downswing with next support near 92.90 then 91.00 with resistance falling toward 95.00. 

AUDJPY has rolled down from a double top near 100.00 but remains in its current consolidation channel continuing to trade well above 97.00 key support. 

EURJPY is breaking 121.50 today on EUR weakness. A symmetrical continuation triangle has failed and RSI has broken under 50. A break of 120.00 would confirm a new downtrend with next support near 118.90 and 116.50.

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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