Morning Technical Notes

Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski.

 

   

Asia Pacific indices 

Australia 200 continues its downtrend with 5,000 emerging as new resistance, 4,965 support going by the wayside and RSI indicating downward mo accelerating. Next key support appears near 4,840, a 38% retracement.  

Japan 225 is consolidating yesterday’s big breakout with 12,500 emerging as new support. Upside resistance on trend appears near 12,700 then a measured 12,800.

HongKong43 continues to rebound off a successful test of 22,000 as it tries to fill in a gap with resistance in place near 22,425 followed by a Fibonacci test near 22,600. 

China A50 is following through on yesterday’s breakout, clearing 8,400 which may become new support. RSI suggests upward momentum accelerating. Next resistance tests possible near 8,625 then 8,780.

 

US indices 

US30 is trading back and forth between 14,340 and 14,550 as it consolidates recent gains and works off an overbought RSI. 

SPX500 continues to consolidate between 1,535 and 1,565 as it still struggles with its 2007 high. Next measured resistance on a breakout appears near 1,575 then 1,595.

 

Commodities today  

Gold continues to form an ascending triangle base below $1,620. RSI breaking out over 50 signals momentum turning increasingly positive. It would still need to take out downtrend resistance near $1.625 to confirm a turnaround. 

Silver continues to base build in the $28.25 to $29.50 range. Rising RSI suggests upward momentum continues to build. Next resistance on a breakout appears near a measured $30.75. 

Copper tried to reclaim the $3.45 level but faltered and has started to slump back again. 

US crude has stalled in the $91.75 to $93.00 range with falling RSI a concern. This could be just a normal correction in the base building process with a big reverse H&S pattern continuing to form. 

Natural Gas is stalling near $4.00 with more resistance possible near $4.10. Overbought RSI suggests it could be vulnerable to a correction. Initial support near $3.85 then $3.65.

 

FX this morning 

NZDUSD broke out yesterday with pair clearing $0.8300 and RSI clearing 50 confirming the start of a new upswing within a broader channel with resistance near $0.8350, $$0.8410 and $0.8500. 

AUDUSD is breaking out again, clearing $1.0400. A rising RSI below 70 suggests upward momentum continues to build with technical room to run. Next key resistance levels appear near $1.0460 and $1.0600. 

USDJPY continues to show signs of topping out for now in the 94.30 to 96.60 area. It has pulled back and could test channel trend support with RSI declining again. Next test on a breakdown appears near 92.70 then 91.00. 

AUDJPY is teasing the high end of its 97.00 to 100.00 trading channel. A failure to break out could complete a double top. 

EURJPY continues to consolidate in a symmetrical triangle between 121.90 and 124.90 with next support near 118.75 and next resistance near 126.30.

 

 

 

 

About Colin Cieszynski

Colin Cieszynski, has been a Senior Market Analyst with CMC Markets Canadian office since 2007. Colin has provided trading insights to individual and institutional clients for over twenty years both as an analyst/strategist and investment advisor, with additional experience in investment banking and syndication. Colin tracks economic and market trends for Global indices, North American stocks, commodities and currencies utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis techniques. He has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs.
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2 Responses to Morning Technical Notes

  1. Peter Fagan says:

    Thanks Colin, great snapshot reading to pass the time travelling to work. Look forward to updates on any breakouts or fundamental drivers…..

  2. Bob HAYDON says:

    Hi Colin,
    Great concise, informative reading – all in a nutshell – how it should be.
    I now make it my “priority morning reading”.
    Thanks for your thoughts.
    RJH

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