Who will win the currency wars? Central banks in the US, UK, Europe, Japan and China all want to see their currencies weaken, regardless of whether this is their stated aim. The AUD is a bobbing cork in the global sea of increased liquidity.
Although it’s hard to pick the winner of the currency wars, it seems likely that the AUD will be a casualty, and that the AUD could go significantly higher over the medium term. That is, the AUD could strengthen against currencies that are increasingly liquid.
Here’s the big picture:
The recent daily down trend is clearly broken. The inside range between 1.0150 and 1.0580 remains intact. While a down trend breach does not always mean an up trend will start, it appears the risks are now on the upside for AUD/USD.
For some traders, it becomes a question of entry method. There are many possibilities, and only the individual can determine the “right” entry for their personal situation. Looking at the 4 hour chart, two potential entries come to mind.
AUD/USD – 4 Hourly
It’s possible AUD/USD could pull back to the zone around 1.0270. Some traders may try to fish for a lower entry, employing a stop loss below 1.0260. However, the persistence of the rise over the last 20 hours may have other traders conemplating a 1,2,3 entry – buying if and when there is a rise above 1.0335.
A stop entry order allows a trader to concentrate elsewhere while waiting for the move: