In the financial community I have found that one of the most effective ways to start a fight is to discuss the outlook for gold. Possibly because there are so many sub-arguments that it can lead into. Fed good. Fed bad. QE Yes. QE No. Fiat money. Inflation risks. Deflation risks. The list goes on. For the chart watchers though the whole thing gets a lot less cerebral – and hopefully more fruitful. I don’t need to tell anyone reading this about what the long-term chart for gold looks like but in the near term there are some contrary considerations for the price of gold.
As you can see here, despite the macro trend the price is in a broad oscillation. If you have a look at my previous post (click here) you can see why I am interested in this as a short-term mean reversion play. In the same way I would think that the more conservative way to play this trade is to wait for a close within the bands with a target of the 200 day moving average.