The AUDUSD has been one of those slightly irritating trading pairs of late. Irritating because it has been tough to lump in with all the other currencies due to its often strong performances relative to currencies like the euro. Whilst the reasoning for this is obvious the market will frequently behave in the short-term in ways that don’t correspond with the seemingly plain fundamental arguments.
The thing I will be watching today is the crossover of the 50 and the 200 hour moving averages on the hourly chart. I am not really interested in crossovers in the conventional technical sense of trading in the direction of the crossover of the shorter term average. Instead I like to view these as areas of great uncertainty in the market and in this case I would suggest that the 2 averages will likely create a good deal of resistance for the price.
As you can see on the hourly chart, the price has now touched and respected the 200MA with the 50 about to cross. Given the recent momentum in the price I think there is a good chance that the 50MA will become a falling resistance level for the price in the short-term.
Interestingly on the daily chart you can see a not dis-similar situation. The price trend is broadly sideways (which you can see from the near horizontal 200 day MA). The price has peaked roughly at the +1.25 SD band of the 50 day MA which is still solidly trending lower. It appears that this is the likely resistance point for price in the immediate term.
On the hourly once again, if price manages to break through both moving averages we will need to reassess that state of the market once again but for the time being it looks as though we will be building some bullish momentum.